Bitcoin is experiencing a drop in its value, reaching as low as $49,000 today, which marks a 30% decrease from its peak in July. Although there has been a slight recovery, the overall trend remains bearish, as indicated by the daily chart. The significant decline in Bitcoin’s price is also impacting the wider cryptocurrency market. Currently, the total crypto market cap is down by 15.46% to approximately $1.82 trillion according to CoinMarketCap.
Critical Point for Bitcoin: Potential Drop to $40,000
Despite the ongoing uptrend, one analyst believes that there could be further price declines if selling pressure persists. Referring to on-chain data, the analyst highlighted that Bitcoin is currently trading 12% below the on-chain trader realized price, signaling a crucial moment. Historically, Bitcoin has bounced back when prices revisited this level, resuming the upward trend.
The on-chain trader realized price represents the average price at which current Bitcoin holders acquired their coins. With the current price below this level, holders are likely facing losses and considering selling to mitigate risks. If the selling pressure continues, there is a possibility that Bitcoin might drop towards $40,000.
Opportunity for Institutions to Buy at a Reduced Price
Looking at the daily chart, bears have negated the gains achieved between July 8 and 21, pushing prices below the lows of July 2024. By applying a Fibonacci retracement tool from the swing high to low of October 2023 to March 2024, it is evident that Bitcoin has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level.
Moreover, the significant volume of trade on August 5 indicates strong support for the sell-off. With Bitcoin in a bearish breakout pattern, there is a high likelihood of it declining towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level or even dropping to $35,000.
If Bitcoin manages to find support this week, it could boost bullish sentiment and aid in the price recovery. It would be a positive development, especially since Bitcoin dipped below the BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF’s average cost basis of approximately $58,700 today.
While prices remain at or below this level, institutional investors might capitalise, increasing their holdings at a reduced price through BlackRock.
