Bitrabo Editorial
A researcher in the decentralized prediction market realm has alleged that a crypto bettor using the pseudonym ‘Fredi9999’ (or ‘Fredi’) is manipulating betting odds for former President Donald Trump on the Polymarket platform. Recently, Trump’s chances of winning increased sharply from close competition with Vice President Kamala Harris to a notable 60.7%, while Harris’s odds have decreased to 39.3%.
The claims came to the forefront through Domer (@Domahhhh), an anonymous political bettor, who shared his observations in an extensive post on X. He remarked, “After extensive investigation on Fredi9999, the individual responsible for significantly boosting Trump’s odds on multiple prediction markets, I made contact, only for him to block me shortly after. A sensitive character indeed!”
Allegations of Market Manipulation on Polymarket
Domer detailed how Fredi9999 may be influencing the market by placing enormous bets exclusively favoring Trump, reportedly totaling over $25 million. This surge of money has inflated Trump’s odds by about 5% to 8%, elevating the cost of betting on Trump while lowering the cost to bet on Harris correspondingly. According to Domer, this approach disrupts the natural balance of supply and demand on Polymarket, resulting in pricing that does not accurately reflect market sentiment.
Further investigation revealed that Fredi9999 operates multiple accounts, including PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo, which are believed to collectively manage around $28 million. The pattern of substantial transactions from the crypto exchange Kraken into these accounts, followed by significant investments solely in Trump-related odds, indicates a coordinated strategy aimed at swaying market results.
Supporting these allegations, researcher @fozzydiablo found patterns across these accounts suggesting they are controlled by a single individual. Domer referenced @fozzydiablo’s analysis for additional context.
Data indicates a single entity has placed a total of $26 million in bets related to Trump on @Polymarket.
— Fredi9999
– PrincessCaro
– Michie
– Theo4Examining their betting patterns gives insight into their strategies. The analysis reveals some intriguing timelines… pic.twitter.com/2eSv2AKRhW
— Fozzy (@fozzydiablo) October 16, 2024
Domer also speculated about Fredi’s identity and motives, noting the distinct linguistic characteristics in their comments—such as a mix of British and American English spellings and unusual punctuation spacing—which might indicate a French background. Domer suggested: “It seems like the writing style hints at a French individual who learned British English and spent time in the U.S.”
Despite his theories, Domer acknowledged potential ulterior motives behind Fredi’s actions, including possible involvement in a broader scheme or a playful act of role-playing intended to obscure true intentions. He underscored the rare nature of a $25 million bet on one candidate, suggesting that deeper inquiry is needed to unravel the motivations at play.
Domer reflected: “Perhaps it’s all just a game for thrills, someone pretending to have little sophistication on purpose. Maybe there’s a connection to Elon Musk or another major GOP backer. It’s a puzzle figuring this out. GCR, despite his denial, is also a suspect; his theory points towards someone trying to inflate Bitcoin prices, which is a plausible explanation.”
This situation unfolds alongside criticism from Hasu, a strategist for Lido Finance, who expressed his frustrations via X: “While Polymarket is promising, it’s time to call them out for emphasizing ‘volume’ while obscuring open interest. The market isn’t deep by traditional standards, particularly for such a significant event. Their misleading metrics, amplified by media coverage, contribute to this illusion. Not to mention the possibility of fraudulent volume on Polymarket.”
Historically, major individual bets have occasionally swayed prediction markets, as seen in the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential races when large stakes were placed on McCain and Romney, which ultimately did not alter the election results and led to skepticism regarding the impact of such bets.
In closing, Domer pondered the wider implications of Fredi’s actions: “Why should this matter to me? It’s a crucial question! Knowing who you’re betting against is essential. Is this a smart trading firm that warrants concern? Or an amateur betting on personal hopes that I should feel optimistic about? Or could this just be a clumsy attempt to project an impression of Trump’s dominance with no real intent? The situation is quite perplexing.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was valued at $67,646.