Emily Walker
In a recent memo, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, discussed the four-year cycle of Bitcoin (BTC) and how it might be influenced during Donald Trump’s administration. He specifically analyzed if changes in the government’s approach to cryptocurrencies could prolong the current bull market into 2026 and further.
Understanding the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle
The Bitcoin 4-year cycle is characterized by a historical price pattern where the asset experiences approximately three years of significant price growth followed by a year of considerable declines across the cryptocurrency market. The accompanying chart illustrates this cycle.
Based on the chart, 2025 is expected to show positive price movements for BTC, while 2026 may experience a downturn, often referred to as a ‘crypto winter,’ marked by ongoing deleveraging and falling asset prices.
Hougan contested the notion that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is primarily influenced by halving events. He pointed out that the halvings, which occurred in 2016, 2020, and are anticipated in 2024, do not consistently align with the highs and lows of the market cycle.
Regarding the current market situation, Hougan reiterated Bitwise’s earlier forecast predicting that BTC could see its price double this year, exceeding the $200,000 mark. He attributed this potential growth to increasing institutional investments in cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) alongside rising purchases of BTC by corporations and governments.
Expect Shorter Market Pullbacks
Hougan characterized Trump’s new crypto executive order as “overwhelmingly bullish,” noting that it positions the expansion of the U.S. crypto market as a key national initiative. This order also proposes the creation of a “national crypto stockpile” and aims to facilitate the entrance of Wall Street banks and institutional players into the market, backed by favorable regulations. He expressed:
The introduction of ETFs was significant enough to introduce hundreds of billions from new investors into the crypto space. That has been a driving force in this cycle. However, the full integration of crypto, as envisioned in Trump’s order—with banks holding crypto alongside other assets, stablecoins becoming a part of the global payment system, and major institutions committing to crypto—will undoubtedly attract trillions.
Hougan recognized that the true impact of the executive order will unfold gradually over years. He explained that the newly appointed White House crypto czar, David Sacks, will require time to establish a comprehensive regulatory structure. Additionally, leading Wall Street firms may take longer to fully engage with the transformative potential of cryptocurrency.
In summary, Hougan indicated that while the market has not completely diverged from Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle, any future downturns are likely to be less pronounced and shorter than in earlier cycles.
Echoing Bitwise’s forecast, Standard Chartered also predicted that BTC could reach up to $200,000 by late 2025. At the time of reporting, BTC was valued at $106,119, reflecting a 3.7% increase over the last 24 hours.
