Bitrabo Editorial
Fred Rispoli, an attorney backing XRP and the creator of HODL Law, has adjusted his forecast regarding the likelihood of an SEC appeal in the Ripple case to 60%. This adjustment follows a recent legal development where Ripple and the SEC agreed to hold 111% of a monetary judgment in escrow, hinting at a potential appeal.
Rationale Behind Increased Odds of an Appeal
Rispoli made it clear via X that the decision to place such a significant amount in trust indicates a possible move by the SEC towards appealing the case. He explained, “SEC vs Ripple Update: Well, the odds have increased of an appeal. Ripple and SEC have agreed to an arrangement where 111% of monetary judgment will be held in trust, to be paid to SEC only on (1) 30 days after appeal deadline or (2) after appeal concludes.” He mentioned that while this doesn’t confirm an appeal, the chances have risen. “Putting that kind of money in a trust is not something that is done unless SEC is being evasive to Ripple lawyers as to whether it intends on appealing. Again, still possible that no appeal happens but odds have increased,” Rispoli remarked.
The establishment of the escrow raised inquiries among X users, with speculation about whether Ripple could use it as leverage for a settlement with the SEC. Rispoli acknowledged this as a possibility, stating, “Yes, it’s possible. It doesn’t seem like the SEC really cares about losing money, but this move delays the SEC from taking a dime during any possible appeal and allows Ripple to earn interest while it’s $125M is locked up.”
When asked about his current stance on the likelihood of an appeal, Rispoli suggested a 60% probability of an appeal taking place. This marks a subtle shift from his prior estimations of 55% post the Kraken case ruling by US District Judge William H. Orrick III, and an earlier 80% probability.
Rispoli also aimed to allay concerns within the XRP community regarding a prolonged legal battle, indicating that a final decision in this case likely won’t be reached until 2026, alleviating immediate worries.
In line with Rispoli’s insights, Jeremy Hougan, another XRP supporter, speculated that the SEC might still be undecided about pursuing an appeal. Hougan reasoned, “Speculation time: Most likely the SEC just hasn’t made a decision whether it will appeal yet. Why? Filing a Notice of Appeal – see sample below – takes only 15 minutes. If the decision to appeal was already made, there’s no reason to delay filing the Notice – especially when you think its bad case authority out there.”
This new speculation follows Ripple’s recent filing on September 4 in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, where Ripple’s legal team requested a stay on the monetary part of an August 7 judgment mandating a $125 million payment. They proposed that Ripple should deposit roughly $139 million, or 111% of the judgment amount, in a bank account until either 30 days post the appeal period’s expiration or the resolution of any ongoing appeal.
As of the latest update, XRP was trading at $0.5534.