Bitrabo Editorial
Bitcoin (BTC) is off to a rocky beginning in October, a month that has historically shown bullish trends. The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have weighed heavily on the market. Nevertheless, there remains a sense of optimism among investors for a possible recovery later in the month.
Challenges for Bitcoin in “Uptober”
Bitcoin’s journey this October has been bumpy, marking a challenging start to what is usually its strongest month since 2013. Traditionally, October has provided an average return of 21.2% for Bitcoin, as depicted in the chart below.
Recently, BTC dipped below the pivotal $60,000 mark but rebounded to $61,179 at the time of writing. This volatile movement resulted in over $32 million in liquidations for Bitcoin, with Ethereum (ETH) following closely behind at approximately $18 million.
In the past week, Bitcoin has decreased by 6.9%, while many altcoins faced steeper drops. Ethereum fell 11.2%, Solana (SOL) dropped 10.9%, and BNB declined by 9.9%.
Statistics from CoinGlass suggest that Bitcoin usually experiences most of its price increase during the latter half of October. Evidence from the chart illustrates that the initial days of the month are not typically favorable for BTC pricing.
Historically, Bitcoin has only seen one positive return on October 1 since 2013. On October 2, it has gained five times in eleven years. Conversely, dates later in the month show better trends, with October 28 yielding positive returns nine out of eleven times, and October 20 seeing eight out of eleven favorable days.
This year, Bitcoin reversed its typical September downturn by closing with a gain of 7.29%, marking its best performance for that month since 2013.
Factors Impacting Bitcoin Prices
Following its fourth halving in April 2024, Bitcoin anticipated a bullish phase due to subsequent interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve in September. Yet, rising geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming highly-contested US presidential elections in November 2024 have dampened sentiment.
Despite these hurdles, some analysts maintain a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s recovery later this year. An analyst from Standard Chartered describes the recent slip below $60,000 as a significant buying chance.
Likewise, Markus Thielen from 10x Research predicts a “notably high” likelihood of a crypto upswing in the fourth quarter of 2024, attributing this to decreasing Bitcoin dominance and a spike in Ethereum gas fees.
On the other hand, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that interest rate cuts could trigger a short-term market downturn. As of now, BTC is trading at $61,179, reflecting a 2.2% increase over the past 24 hours.
