Bitrabo Editorial
The analytics firm Glassnode has suggested that Bitcoin investors might have to wait between 8 and 18 months before seeing a new all-time high (ATH), based on historical patterns.
The Current Transitional Period for Bitcoin has Lasted 221 Days So Far
In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has analyzed the potential future of the Bitcoin cycle. The firm has defined different phases within the cycle and compared the durations of these phases across all previous cycles.
The first phase is the “bull market,” which starts at the cycle low and ends at the cycle top. The second phase is the “bear market,” which is the reverse of the bull market and starts at the top and ends at the next bottom.
The phase of interest in the current discussion is the “transition” phase, which occurs between a cycle’s all-time low and its new all-time high.
Below is a chart showing the duration of each phase in recent Bitcoin cycles and how the current cycle compares:
Chart depicting the phases of previous Bitcoin cycles | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 25, 2023
As shown in the graph, the duration of the last three transition phases has varied. The first phase lasted 458 days, while the other two were closer at 770 and 731 days, respectively.
This means that previous cycles required these number of days after the bear market bottom before the price reached a new all-time high.
In the current cycle, it is unclear which phase the market is currently in. If the low observed in November 2022, following the crash caused by the FTX exchange collapse, is indeed the bottom of the bear market, then Bitcoin would currently be in the transition phase.
So far, Bitcoin has spent approximately 221 days in this transition zone, which is significantly shorter than the durations seen in previous cycles.
If we consider the historical range of 458 to 770 days for these transition periods, it suggests that the current market may still have 8-18 months to go before the transition phase ends and a new all-time high is achieved.
This assumption relies on the November 2022 low being the cyclical bottom. If this assumption is incorrect, Bitcoin would still be in the bear market phase.
Current BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,900, experiencing a 3% increase in the last week.
Recent increase in the value of Bitcoin | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com