Bitrabo Editorial
Data on the blockchain suggests that a key Bitcoin indicator is currently following a trend similar to what led to the peak of the bull market in 2021.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Trend Shift
An analysis by Maartunn of CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are exhibiting a behavior that mirrors that of 2021.
Long-term holders (LTHs) are investors who have held onto their Bitcoin without moving or selling it for more than 155 days.
Typically, the longer holders keep their assets static, the less likely they are to make any transactions. These long-term holders are seen as stable entities in the market.
While these investors usually remain unaffected by market events, the recent price surge towards a new all-time high has prompted some of these holders to sell their holdings.
The chart depicting the trend in Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders over the past few years shows a significant change:
During the accumulation phase between the May 2021 crash and the recent rally, the supply held by long-term holders was increasing. However, with the latest surge towards the all-time high, this supply has started to decrease.
It’s important to note that there is a 155-day delay in this indicator for buying activity, meaning that only matured supplies are accounted for. Therefore, an increase in the metric doesn’t necessarily indicate current accumulation but rather purchases made 155 days ago that are now considered long-term holdings.
On the selling side, there’s no such delay, and coins leave this group as soon as they are transferred on the network. The recent decline in supply corresponds to ongoing selling pressure in the market.
As Bitcoin’s price has stabilized recently, the selling activity among long-term holders has slowed down, resulting in a sideways movement of the supply. This trend mirrors what occurred in 2021, suggesting a potential peak for the current bull run based on historical patterns.
However, it’s crucial to confirm if the distribution by long-term holders has indeed concluded. Past bull markets have shown a pattern where initial intense selling by long-term holders is followed by a slower distribution phase that can last for months before reaching a peak. The current shift in the Bitcoin long-term holder supply might indicate either of these phases.
Bitcoin Price Update
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $62,700, showing a slight decline of nearly 2% over the past week.