Emily Walker
On Wednesday morning, FBI agents executed a search at the New York City home of Shayne Coplan, the CEO of Polymarket. This took place shortly after the betting platform accurately forecasted Donald Trump’s election success.
Controversy Over Polymarket’s Operations
As reported by the New York Post, law enforcement arrived at Coplan’s residence around 6 am, insisting on confiscating his mobile phone and other electronic devices.
A person familiar with the situation referred to the raid as “grand political theater at its worst,” implying that the FBI could have opted for a less dramatic approach by merely contacting Coplan’s legal representative for the required information.
This person raised concerns about potential “politically motivated” reasons for the raid, especially after Polymarket’s accurate prediction of Trump’s win against Vice President Kamala Harris on November 5, which differed significantly from conventional polling data.
The source also pointed out that the government might be reacting to claims from “liberal media” alleging that Polymarket was involved in market manipulation and skewing its results in favor of Trump.
“This appears to be clear political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for successfully predicting the 2024 presidential election,” they stated.
No arrests or charges were made against Coplan, and a representative from Polymarket insisted on the company’s transparency, noting, “Polymarket is a completely transparent prediction market that assists individuals in understanding important events, such as elections.”
In a light-hearted response to the incident, Coplan posted on X (formerly Twitter), “New phone, who dis?”, conveying a laid-back attitude towards the developments.
Ongoing Investigations by French Authorities
After Coplan hinted at a potential return of Polymarket to the US market, the FBI’s investigation emerged. Before the election, Polymarket had estimated Trump’s chances of winning at 58.6%, while Harris was at 41.4%.
Coplan has also been spotted with Donald Trump Jr., which has led to further speculation about the platform’s ties to Trump and his supporters.
In 2022, Polymarket had to halt its US operations and pay a $1.4 million fine to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for not registering with them, since which it has primarily catered to bettors outside the United States.
A significant occurrence was reported after the election, involving an anonymous French trader known as Théo, who allegedly earned $85 million from bets linked to Trump, well above earlier projections. Théo stated that his betting was solely for profit and that he had no aim to sway the election results.
Moreover, Polymarket is currently being investigated by France’s gambling authority, Autorité Nationale des Jeux, to ensure its compliance with local regulations. A representative confirmed they are monitoring the platform’s activities.
Image courtesy of BBC, chart sourced from TradingView.com