Emily Walker
On December 9, Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, introduced “Willow,” a quantum computing chip seen as a major breakthrough in creating scalable quantum systems. This revelation has sparked discussions about the potential risks it poses to Bitcoin’s long-term cryptographic security. Willow, with its ability to significantly decrease error rates and manage complex computations, has reignited the conversation about how quantum advancements could affect cryptography, notably the security features that underpin Bitcoin.
Pichai highlighted Willow’s capabilities in a statement on X, mentioning that the 105-qubit chip can drastically reduce errors at scale—a challenge that has eluded researchers for many years. He shared early results indicating that Willow completed a common quantum problem in under five minutes, a feat that, according to him, would take an advanced supercomputer over 10^25 years to achieve.
Introducing Willow, our new state-of-the-art quantum computing chip with a breakthrough that can reduce errors exponentially as we scale up using more qubits, cracking a 30-year challenge in the field. In benchmark tests, Willow solved a standard computation in <5 mins that would…
— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) December 9, 2024
The potential of quantum computing to address problems at speeds never seen before has led to extensive discussions on its impact on both traditional and elliptic-curve cryptography. Bitcoin’s security is primarily built on two cryptographic methods: ECDSA for securing private keys and SHA-256 for hashing. Presently, these methods are deemed secure against existing classical computers. However, the emergence of powerful, reliable quantum machines could potentially render current cryptographic defenses ineffective.
Is Google’s Willow A Threat For Bitcoin?
Following Willow’s announcement, Ben Sigman, CEO of Bitcoin Libre, responded on X, acknowledging the advancements made but asserting that Bitcoin’s encryption remains secure against today’s quantum technology. He pointed out that using Shor’s algorithm to break Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures would necessitate “over 1,000,000 qubits,” far exceeding Willow’s current capacity.
Regarding the second layer of Bitcoin’s security, SHA-256, Sigman clarified that overcoming it would require “millions of physical qubits,” which is much higher than what Willow and today’s quantum systems can provide. He concluded with confidence, “Bitcoin’s cryptography remains SAFU … for now.”
On the other hand, Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, cautioned against underestimating the rapid development of quantum computing. While he recognizes the current disparity between available quantum technology and what would be needed to compromise Bitcoin’s security, he warns against becoming complacent.
Edwards emphasized, “The current skepticism towards Quantum Computing reminds me of how many dismissed Bitcoin as worthless after only a brief evaluation. Quantum Computing is not a fantasy; it’s real, and its impact will be enormous. If we do not enhance Bitcoin’s security, it will be compromised.” He referred to studies indicating that as few as 2,500 logical qubits might suffice to challenge SHA-256, which is significantly less than the commonly mentioned “millions of qubits.”
This distinction between physical and logical qubits is critical. Physical qubits are the fundamental units, while logical qubits result from extensive error correction and resource management. Achieving thousands of logical qubits today requires a substantially greater number of physical qubits, potentially reaching millions.
Furthermore, Edwards pointed to various projections that suggest some quantum firms believe they could reach around 3,000 logical qubits within five years. He reinforced that skepticism regarding the speed of quantum advances is dangerous and that whether the threat materializes in 3, 5, 10, or 15 years, immediate action is necessary.
“In the best-case scenario, once we agree on a cryptographic upgrade for Bitcoin to handle quantum threats, it may take at least a year to transition most users to this new system,” Edwards noted. Matteo Pellegrini, CEO and founder of The New Orange Pill App, added that while achieving approximately 2,500 logical qubits seems reasonable, executing this involves tremendous improvements in error correction and overall efficiency.
He stated, “The study indeed suggests that around 2500 logical qubits could be needed to break SHA-256. However, practical realization requires a significant enhancement in error correction, coherence, and gate reliability. The number of physical qubits needed could reach millions, given the current technological limitations.”
This gap between the necessary physical and logical qubits is why some experts remain optimistic: scaling from hundreds of physical qubits to millions presents an immense engineering challenge. Nevertheless, Edwards continues to sound the alarm: “Most companies are poised to reach this milestone in under five years.”
As of now, Bitcoin’s price is recorded at $97,492.
