Bitrabo Editorial
Former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the presidential election have increased to 72% after an attempted assassination during a rally in Pennsylvania, as per crypto prediction market Polymarket.
Contrary to traditional polls, Polymarket and PredictIt have observed a shift in Trump’s favor post the incident, according to a recent report by Fortune.
Growth in Crypto Industry with Trump’s Rising Odds
Prediction markets enable traders to exchange contracts based on uncertain future events, indicating odds. Following the assassination attempt, Polymarket shows Trump’s chances rising from 60% to 72%, while Biden’s odds slightly increased to 18% and Kamala Harris’ dropped to 5%.
PredictIt also reflects a similar trend with Trump’s odds at 67% and Biden’s at 26%.
The crypto market has seen notable reactions after the incident, especially in the prices of major tokens, with recent rebounds. Trump’s statement about being the “crypto president” if re-elected has fueled the crypto market rally.
Indicators of Market Recovery
Bitcoin surged by 6%, surpassing $63,000 for the first time in three weeks, after hitting a low of $53,500 on July 5th. The largest cryptocurrency recorded gains of 6% and over 13% in the 24 and seven-hour time frames.
Stocks related to crypto, like Coinbase Global, Marathon Digital Holdings, and Riot Platforms, also experienced upward momentum with gains of 10%, 7%, and 6% respectively.
Meme coins parodying the former president, such as MAGA, witnessed significant increases, rising over 45% in seven days and 7% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $8.43.
However, MAGA has seen a 66% decrease in trading volume and a 53% drop from its all-time high of $17.5 in June 2024, as per CoinGecko data.
Fortune also mentions an indirect impact of the shooting on Trump’s business ventures, as shares of Trump Media and Technology, the parent company of Truth Social, surged by 47% post the incident, potentially adding $1.8 billion to Trump’s total wealth, showcasing increased investor interest in Trump-owned businesses.
Image source: Toledo Blade, chart source: TradingView.com