Bitrabo Editorial
Experts are keeping a close watch on the upcoming US presidential election and its potential impact on Bitcoin. Recent assessments by Bernstein highlight a notable difference in Bitcoin’s future based on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the election.
Their analysis suggests that should Trump win, Bitcoin’s value could increase to between $80,000 and $90,000 by the end of 2024. In contrast, if Harris emerges victorious, Bitcoin might drop to around $40,000 due to anticipated regulatory challenges.
According to Bernstein analysts, short-term Bitcoin price changes are closely tied to the US election results. If Trump wins, Bitcoin could soar to a new high of $80,000 to $90,000. However, a win for Harris may see Bitcoin fall to…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 9, 2024
Impact of Trump’s Presidency on Bitcoin
Bernstein’s analysts, including Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia, believe that a Trump presidency would be “incrementally favorable” for Bitcoin. Trump’s recent pro-crypto stance could lead to looser regulations and the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve, making investors optimistic about less stringent rules if he is elected.
On the flip side, Harris is known for her cautious approach to cryptocurrency. While she supports innovation, her policies are not expected to provide the same encouragement to the Bitcoin market as Trump’s would. Bernstein warns that Harris’s administration may exert downward pressure on Bitcoin, possibly making it fall to the low $40,000s.
Wider Implications for the Market
These forecasts hold broader ramifications beyond just Bitcoin. Standard Chartered analysts predict that if Trump wins, Bitcoin might even reach $125,000, whereas a Harris win could stabilize it around $75,000.
Bernstein is optimistic that “regardless of the winner,” Bitcoin is likely to maintain a generally positive trajectory, fueled by macroeconomic factors like low interest rates and high debt levels. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Solana, are also expected to remain stable post-election, although specific paths may only become clear once the new administration’s regulatory appointees are named.
Election Outcomes and Investor Sentiment
As the election approaches, market sentiment appears to be leaning towards Trump. Currently, prediction markets on Polymarket show Trump with nearly a 9% advantage over Harris. Analysts indicate that as Trump’s winning chances seem to improve, it will likely lead to a positive shift in Bitcoin prices.
The upcoming election is a crucial juncture for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency landscape. Bernstein’s analysis underscores the potential for market volatility linked to political outcomes.
With Trump advocating for a more favorable regulatory environment and Harris taking a cautious approach, investors anticipate significant fluctuations in Bitcoin’s value as November approaches. Both analysts and investors agree that the political climate will considerably impact the future of digital currencies in the US.
Image credit: Fox Business, chart data from TradingView