Bitrabo Editorial
Despite notable inflows into US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and a streak of positive inflows, totaling over $1.5 billion in the last three days, Bitcoin (BTC) still trades below the coveted $100,000 mark. With a current value of approximately $71,000, although up by 50% since the inception of the ETFs, the anticipated record high is yet to be achieved.
Charles Edwards, the CEO of Capriole Investments, recently discussed the reasons behind Bitcoin’s price not surging to $100,000 in a post on X, shedding light on various crucial factors beyond ETF inflows.
Factors Impacting Bitcoin Price Surge
Edwards highlighted that US spot ETFs have accumulated 200% of the total BTC supply mined since their launch earlier in the year, indicating substantial demand. However, despite this aggressive accumulation, the expected price surge has not materialized.
An essential aspect Edwards pointed out was the shift in the percentage of BTC’s total supply held by long-term holders, which dropped from 57% to 54%. This transition of about 630,000 Bitcoins, accounting for nearly 300% of the year’s total BTC purchases by all US ETFs, hints at a shift from long-term investors to more speculative or short-term ones. Additionally, some of this selling is not pure market exit but a transition from older investment vehicles to newer ETF products.
Furthermore, the effects of the halving are yet to fully impact the market, with a significant drop in daily Bitcoin issuance in April expected to widen the gap between ETF consumption and mining. Institutional review processes and market timing, particularly considering June’s historical market trends, also play a significant role.
Looking forward, Edwards is cautiously optimistic, highlighting the importance of increased daily buying volumes from ETFs, a decrease in selling by long-term holders, and a resurgence in US liquidity for significant price appreciation. However, the timing of these factors aligning for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 remains uncertain.
Currently, BTC trades at $71,659.