Bitrabo Editorial
Bitcoin kickstarted the year with impressive momentum, especially following the launch of spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in January. This new development attracted a wave of investors, helping Bitcoin reach a remarkable peak of $73,737 by mid-March.
However, in recent months, Bitcoin’s performance has tapered off, leading many investors and cryptocurrency followers to question if the bullish phase has concluded. A blockchain company recently provided insights on the timeline for Bitcoin’s bull run.
Bitcoin’s Price Decreased By 12% Since Halving
According to a recent analysis from the crypto intelligence firm IntoTheBlock, the behavior of Bitcoin during halving years significantly influences its bull cycle trajectory. Following the fourth halving event in April, miners’ rewards were reduced from 12.5 to 6.25.
While halving is generally viewed as a bullish event, Bitcoin’s performance post-halving has not been particularly strong. IntoTheBlock reported that Bitcoin has experienced a 12% drop from its halving price of $63,900.
Despite Bitcoin’s current standing being better than earlier predictions, it still raises concerns among investors. Nevertheless, the less-than-expected performance following the halving may not signify the end, as prices remain distant from previous cycle peaks.
Historically, IntoTheBlock highlighted that the average span between Bitcoin’s halving and the next price peak is approximately 480 days, suggesting that the upcoming peak could occur around the summer of 2025.
Recently, Bitcoin has been trading within a consolidation range, fluctuating between $55,000 and $69,000. A continuous rise above $70,000 could indicate a return to a bullish trend.
When Will the Bullish Trend Return?
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju concurred with this analysis, stating that Bitcoin is still in the midst of its bull cycle and has not yet attracted a significant wave of retail investors, often referred to as the retail bubble.
It is important to consider that Bitcoin demand in certain regions, particularly in the United States, appears to be decreasing. This is evident from the declining dominance in Coinbase’s spot trading volume, reverting to levels seen before the launch of spot ETFs. According to Young Ju, a resurgence in U.S. Bitcoin demand is necessary for the bull cycle to elevate.
The CryptoQuant CEO remarked:
I anticipate this in Q4, although I could be mistaken.
At present, Bitcoin’s price is around $54,000, showing a slight increase of 0.5% in the last 24 hours. However, the cryptocurrency has faced over an 8.5% decline over the past week, as per CoinGecko data.